As I sit down to analyze the upcoming American Athletic Conference football season, I can't help but recall that fascinating quote from the St. Benedict Childhood Education Center student about their golf experience: "This course is unpredictable – short but tricky." That statement perfectly captures the essence of what we're about to witness in AAC football this year. Having covered this conference for over a decade, I've learned that predicting outcomes here is like trying to catch smoke with your bare hands – just when you think you've got it figured out, it slips through your fingers. The AAC might not have the blue-blood programs of the Power Five, but what it lacks in traditional prestige, it more than makes up for in pure entertainment value and unpredictability.
Let me be perfectly honest here – I've developed a genuine soft spot for this conference over the years. There's something raw and authentic about AAC football that you don't always find in the more polished Power Five leagues. This season, the conference landscape has shifted dramatically with the departure of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to the Big 12. While some might see this as a weakening of the conference, I actually view it as an opportunity for new rivalries to emerge and different programs to step into the spotlight. The addition of six new schools – UAB, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, North Texas, Rice, and UTSA – brings fresh energy and intriguing storylines. Personally, I'm particularly excited to see how UTSA builds on their recent success under Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners have won 23 games over the past two seasons, and I believe they could immediately challenge for the conference title.
The quarterback situation across the conference is absolutely fascinating this year. At SMU, Preston Stone returns after throwing for 1,803 yards in just seven starts before his season-ending injury. I've watched his development closely, and if he stays healthy, I think he could put up numbers that might even challenge the 3,500-yard mark. Meanwhile, Memphis brings back Seth Henigan, who quietly completed 67.3% of his passes last season. What many people don't realize is that Henigan has thrown for 7,200 yards over his career, placing him firmly in the conversation for AAC offensive player of the year. Tulane's Michael Pratt decision to return for his senior season was huge – the Green Wave quarterback has accounted for 98 touchdowns during his college career, and I expect him to surpass the 100-touchdown mark by mid-October.
Defensively, I'm keeping my eye on UTSA's edge rusher Trey Moore, who recorded 14 sacks last season. That number wasn't just impressive – it was the highest sack total by any AAC player since 2019. The conference has traditionally been known for offensive fireworks, but I'm noticing a trend toward more balanced teams that can actually play defense. Last season, three AAC teams held opponents under 24 points per game, which might not sound groundbreaking until you consider that just two years earlier, only one team managed that feat.
When it comes to the conference race, I'm predicting a three-team battle between Tulane, UTSA, and SMU. Tulane's Willie Fritz has built something special there – the Green Wave have won 22 games over the past two seasons, which represents their most successful two-year stretch since the 1930s. Their game against UTSA on November 11 could very well decide who represents the conference in the championship game. SMU's schedule sets up nicely for them, with their toughest conference games all at home. I've learned never to count out Memphis though – Ryan Silverfield has quietly built a program that consistently outperforms expectations.
The "short but tricky" nature of the conference schedule means that every game matters immensely. With only eight conference games, there's very little margin for error. A single loss in September could haunt a team in November when championship aspirations are on the line. I remember thinking last season that Tulane's early stumble against Southern Miss would cost them, yet they rallied to win the conference. That's the beauty of AAC football – it constantly reminds you that initial impressions can be deceiving.
Looking at the non-conference slate, I count at least seven games where AAC teams will face Power Five opponents. These matchups are crucial for the conference's reputation and College Football Playoff positioning. Last season, AAC teams went 3-4 against Power Five competition, with Tulane's Cotton Bowl victory over USC standing as the conference's signature win. This year, I'm particularly intrigued by SMU's trip to Oklahoma on September 9 and Tulane hosting Ole Miss on September 16. A win in either of those games would provide a massive credibility boost for the entire conference.
The transfer portal has reshaped rosters across the AAC, with teams adding nearly 150 transfers collectively. SMU landed former Oklahoma quarterback General Booty, while Memphis added several defensive pieces from Power Five programs. This influx of talent creates fascinating roster dynamics – teams that effectively integrate transfers often see immediate improvements. From my observation, the programs that balance portal additions with developing high school recruits tend to build the most sustainable success.
As the season approaches, I find myself adopting that student's mindset of "no expectations – just focus shot by shot." In AAC football, getting too far ahead of yourself is a recipe for disappointment. The conference's beauty lies in its week-to-week drama and the emergence of unexpected heroes. Last season, who would have predicted that Tulane would go from 2-10 to 12-2? That kind of turnaround exemplifies why I find this conference so compelling. While other conferences might have more predictable hierarchies, the AAC offers genuine uncertainty from August through December.
My prediction for the championship game? I'll go with UTSA facing SMU, with the Roadrunners emerging victorious in a high-scoring affair. But honestly, that's more of an educated guess than a confident prediction. The truth is, in the American Athletic Conference, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. And you know what? I wouldn't have it any other way. This conference reminds me why I fell in love with college football in the first place – the passion, the unpredictability, and the knowledge that on any given Saturday, anything can happen.